Browsing by Author "Manyike, Jabulile Zamokuhle"

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    Assessing smallholder livestock farmer’s choices in response to climate variability: Implications for food security and income in the Eastern Cape, South Africa
    (University of Fort Hare, 2024-04) Manyike, Jabulile Zamokuhle; Taruvinga, A.; Zhou, L.
    Climate variability present challenges for smallholder farmers, influencing their livestock choices to enhance resilience and improve livelihoods. This study examines the decisionmaking processes of smallholder farmers regarding livestock choices in response to climate variability and its impact on household income and food security. Data were collected from 600 farmers in the Eastern Cape Province using a multi-stage sampling technique and a structured questionnaire, supplemented by long-term climate data from the South African Weather Services. The first objective was to examine farmers' perceptions of climate variability, compare them with historical trends, and assess livestock adaptability. Most farmers reported rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, and shifts in the rainy season, which align with meteorological data. Farmers perceived goats, indigenous chickens, and sheep as more resilient to stressors like heat, water scarcity, and feed shortages compared to cattle and pigs. The study then used a double hurdle model to analyse the determinants of livestock ownership and herd intensity. Results revealed that 83% of farmers owned livestock, with an average herd size of 9.5 livestock units. Livestock ownership was positively associated with adherence to African traditional religion, access to climate information, farming organization membership, income diversification, formal housing ownership, exposure to high temperatures, and femaleheaded households. Higher educational attainment and larger household sizes were linked to a lower likelihood of livestock ownership. Herd intensity was influenced by male-headed households, affiliation with farming organizations, diversified income, and higher annual precipitation. While male-headed households were less likely to own livestock initially, those that did tended to maintain larger herds. A multivariate probit model was employed to assess the likelihood of adjusting livestock species and breed choices in response to temperature and precipitation changes. Findings suggest that farmers employ both complementary and substitutive strategies. Higher temperatures increased the likelihood of keeping goats instead of cattle, while increased precipitation encouraged the keeping of goats and chickens. Breed preferences showed that cattle farmers were more likely to reduce Brahman breeds as temperatures rose and reduce Bonsmara breeds with increased precipitation. For sheep, rising temperatures led to a preference for Dohne Merino over Dorper breeds A structural equation model and the protection motivation theory examined the psychological factors influencing farmers' intentions to adjust livestock choices. While farmers were neutral about adjustments, they were more likely to consider changes when perceiving higher climate risks, believing in the effectiveness of adjustments, and receiving adequate incentives. However, low perceived climate advisory competence and cognitive biases hindered their willingness to adjust. Finally, an endogenous switching regression model assessed the impact of livestock choice on food security and income. Results showed that some choices, such as choosing non-descript cattle or resilient sheep breeds, improved food security, while others, such as choosing goats and chickens over cattle, compromised food security and reduced income. More resilient breeds offered better returns due to higher adaptability and market value. In conclusion, the study highlights the role of household capital, climate factors, and psychological factors in livestock choice amidst climate change. It recommends a balanced approach, promoting the diversification of resilient and less resilient species and breeds to enhance overall resilience, food security, and income.